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Marlene Cimons writes forClimate Nexus , a nonprofit that place to tell the climate news report in innovational ways that raise awareness of , dispel misinformation about , and showcase solvent to mood change and energy issues in the United States . She bring this article to Live Science’sExpert Voices : Op - Ed & Insights .
The storms that buried the Buffalo , New York , surface area in more than 7 understructure ( 2.1 beat ) of snow this week shatter platter and shocked residents — even in a region accustom to dealing with heavy blow . The tempest are certain to provide new fresh fish for climate - change sceptic who seem to sweep up every monster blizzard as evidence that global thawing does n’t exist .
Even though ferocious snowstorms will become more frequent this century, their intensity will stay the same.
And yet , the science behind these catastrophic storm suggest that they do not occurdespiteglobal warming , but in factbecauseof it . [ Will U.S.-India Summit Bring Historic Climate Action ? ( Op - Ed ) ]
" Part of what ease up us the record lake - effect snowfall in Buffalo was warm , late - tumble lake - control surface temperatures that combined with something highly strange : a 5 sigma issue . That is , a very unbelievable event on the Holy Order of 1 - in - a - million — a unco persistent , anomalous configuration of the blue jet stream , which brought frigid Arctic tune down into the United States so betimes in the season , " said Michael Mann , professor and manager of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University . " The cold wind travel over the lovesome wet - laden lake create a complete violent storm of conditions for record lake - effect snow . "
The basic science behind snow and its relationship to climate change is clean straightforward . warm temperatures cause more water to evaporate into the atmosphere , and strong aura holds more piss than cool gentle wind . The air ’s water - holding capacitance , in fact , rises about 7 percent with each 1 degree Celsius ( 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit ) of heating . The warming outcome in air that becomes supersaturated with weewee , often bringing drench rain , follow by implosion therapy or , if it is moth-eaten enough , heavy and vivid snowfall . [ Snow in Spring ? Why a Cold March Does n’t confute Global Warming ]
Even though ferocious snowstorms will become more frequent this century, their intensity will stay the same.
Astudy of 20th hundred snowstormspublished in the August 2006 issue of the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology , before the big storms of recent year , found that most major blizzard in the United States happen duringwarmer - than - normal years . The climatologists who author the paper — the late Stanley Changnon , a scientist with the Illinois State Water Survey , David Changnon , a professor with the Northern Illinois University department of geography , and Thomas R. Karl theatre director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ’s National Climatic Data Center — predicted that " a warm future clime will generate more winter storms . ''
That result was especially dramatic in 2010 , when storms walloped the Atlantic states — most notably , a back - to - back punch only one 24-hour interval apart in February of that year that develop records in many major cities and , in Washington , D.C. , became known as " Snowmageddon . '' rarefied storm also bring expectant snows to the Deep South , include the northwestern panhandle of Florida . In fact , by the 2d week of February , every state but Hawaii had snow on the ground .
So what was unique about what occur in upstate New York this week ? While2014 is on track to be the red-hot twelvemonth on record , the country has been experiencing a blow of unseasonably frigid conditions leave from atmospherical blocking , a geographically across-the-board insistency shape with little or no movement , causing a sustained period of cold , mid - November temperatures .
Moreover , warm ocean water fortify Super Typhoon Nuri and stimulate the tempest to travel farther northerly than normal , push the jet flow further in the south in the United States . The super C stream also may have slow due to a warm Arctic , relieve the way for Nuri to ram it southward , bringing frigid sub - icy conditions with it .
" If Jennifer Francis , Stefan Rahmstorf and others who have release employment suggest that the increased tendency for outstandingly relentless meander in the jet stream might be a consequence ofhuman - caused climate changeare right , then climate change may have indeed played a mitt in this consequence , " Mann said .
Another reason for the late extreme snowfall in Buffalo may be that unseasonably cold air in the part created an uttermost difference between water system and zephyr temperature , increase the order of magnitude of snowfall give rise as cold winds move across the warmer lake water . Water temperature in eastern Lake Erie to begin with this hebdomad , for instance , were about 50 degree F ( 28 degrees C ) warmer than the air .
Since 1950 , in fact , there have been sign of an growth in lake - consequence snow along and near the southern and eastern shores of the Great Lakes , according to the United States Global Change Research Program . ( USGCRP ) . Such snow results from the strong flow of cold air across large areas of comparatively warmer ice - free water . Ice coverage on the Great Lakes has expend with the warming mood , creating conditions favorable to more vapour and heavier blizzard . Western New York , for example , also experienced extreme lake - effect Baron Snow of Leicester in February 2007 , when more than 10 foundation ( 3 m ) of snow fell during a 10 - twenty-four hours period . At least one field prove howlake - effect snowstorms increase with global warming .
" The Buffalo blizzard of November 2014 is amply consistent with our understanding of human being - induce clime change , " said Michael Wehner , a aged staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of California , Berkeley . " doubtless , the Buffalo event will attract some research , perhaps even from our group . "
On the surface , it almost seems contradictory — although , in world , it is not . On one hired man , warm temperatures are leave to milder and scant winters in most areas , let in a later offset to winter and early onrush of leaping . During the past 30 years , temperatures have rise faster in wintertime than in any other season , with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increase by more than 7 F ( 4 century ) , allot to the USGCR .
On the other hand , the country still is experience big snowstorms , peculiarly in the northern part of the country . climatologist betoken that the coming decades will play more of the same , intend unco tender winters and potentially phonograph recording - breach snowstorm .
" If you look at model ejection of climate change for the next few decades under ' business as usual ' carbon emissions , what they show is that you ’ll still have ' winter ' over region like the United States — that is , there will still be a broad seasonal windowpane where it is cold enough for snow , '' Mann said . " But because winter will be warmer , the atmosphere will have the ability to apply more weewee vapor , and so there is more of that water vapor available for precipitation . Again , as long as it ’s cold enough for that precipitation to be nose candy , which it will be , you ’ll actually get tumid snowfall . ''
Paradoxically , winter as a season likely will become shorter as a result of increase warming , potentially hurt winter recreation areas that look on tourism , while C. P. Snow , when it does flow , probably will be heavier . " Most probably , we will see a shorter C season but more intense individual snowfall events , '' Mann said .
medium haste projections for the future are move both up and down , depend on the area . In high latitudes , especially in the far North — Siberia , Canada and the northerly United States — precipitation is expect to increase during wintertime and spring . That is due to both the water - holding content of the melody and circulation change that drive greater wet from the tropics into higher latitudes , Wehner read .
As a result , " you will have a larger effect in the wintertime and also in the springiness , '' Wehner enounce . " Interestingly , when it ’s supercold , it does n’t tend to snow because the air is too cold and ca n’t defend much water supply , " he added . " When it fetch a small warm , but still below freezing , that ’s when it tends to Baron Snow of Leicester .
" The models all agree there will be more precipitation in the northern United States as global temperatures proceed to increase , " Wehner carry on . " This translate to more blow as long as it stay put below freezing . However , at some dot , wintertime temperature will be high enough that this special downfall will take the signifier of rain or else . ''
Mann jibe . " As long as it ’s cold enough to play false — which it will be in the wintertime — you potentially will get greater snowfall , " he say . " In fact , up to a point , the warmer the air — when it is still below suspend — themoresnow you will get . "
